Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Chiranjeevi single-handedly took the Congress from defeat to victory and shattered Telugu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu's dreams

The big story is in Andhra Pradesh, where matinee idol Chiranjeevi
single-handedly took the Congress from defeat to victory and shattered
Telugu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu's dreams. An analysis of
the results reveals that the Chiranjeevi factor decimated the TDP in
26 constituencies. The Congress netted 33 seats, four more than in
2004.

The Andhra Pradesh results are an irony of these elections. The
Congress registered a drop of 3.84% in vote share but an increase of
four seats, while the TDP's vote share plummeted 14.92% and it won one
more seat. If the vote share change of the two main parties is added,
it is obvious where Chiranjeevi's 17% vote share came from and which
party he hit.

The other actor who rescued the UPA was Vijayakanth, who scripted
history in a state known for pendulum swings.

For the first time in 23 years, the Tamil Nadu verdict was split, with
the DMK-Congress combine picking up 26 seats and the AIADMK-led
alliance having to settle for 13.

Vijayakanth's DMDK helped the Congress-DMK combine win in 14
constituencies, including P Chidambaram's hotly contested Sivaganga.
In seven others, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK alliance was precariously
poised till the very end. Ultimately, it won those seats, but by
narrow margins. The final tally for the UPA was 26, 18 to the DMK and
eight to the Congress, in a state where the ruling alliance feared a
wipe-out.

The vote share figures tell a strange story in this state too. The DMK
and the Congress registered an increase in vote shares but failed to
sweep the state as in 2004, when their Democratic Progressive Alliance
(which included the PMK and MDMK) won all 39 seats. The AIADMK's vote
share dropped by 2.79% but the party won nine seats, unlike the duck
five years ago.

The third game-changer was Raj. His Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS)
did exactly what it was expected to do. It cut into Shiv Sena-BJP
votes and helped the Congress-NCP alliance to victory in 10
constituencies. Considering that the MNS contested only 12 seats, its
delivery for the Congress-NCP was almost 100%. The UPA registered a
spectacular second successive sweep in Mumbai and won Pune and Thane
thanks to Raj.

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